The Australian think tank ranks each country based on its society’s level of safety and security, the degree of militarization, and the extent of domestic and international conflict. Yet Belgium’s buzzing capital of Brussels seems to be plagued by the continuous wailing of sirens. With the threat of terror in Europe and more recently the Brussels attacks, Belgian authorities have doubled down on their security efforts both in military and policing terms.

In May 2016 the Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior and Security Jan Jambon claimed a great success in combatting crime and attributed it to the increased military and police presence scaring off criminals. Data from the federal police indicate that overall crime rates have indeed steadily decreased in recent years. Recorded criminal offences have dropped by 17% from 1.063.153 in 2011 to 880.766 in 2016 on a national level. Yet the devil hides in the details. Whilst petty crime such as theft and vandalism have steadily decreased since 2008, more serious criminal offences such as the illegal possession of firearms, human trafficking, and terrorism-related incidents have strongly increased between 2008 and 2016

Belgium faces a bleak problem in its connecting capacity for Europe. Belgium serves as an important hub towards Europe with the port of Antwerp being the 17th biggest port in the world, and the second biggest in Europe after Rotterdam. The permeable borders of the EU’s Schengen zone additionally contribute to the ease with which criminals engage in illicit activity. Illegally acquired arms became a focal point of international attention once again after the Paris attacks of November 2015, with media reporting on the Belgian role in arms trade and its history of lax arms control up till 2006. This lack of regulation on firearms has consequentially led to a big stockpile of illegal weapons in Belgium. Concrete numbers on illegal firearms are disputed due to a lack of proper oversight and neglect by the Belgian Central Weapons Registry, according to the Flemish Peace Institute. The commonly floated number of 630.000 to 1.1 million illegal firearms in Belgium is unreliable, but more recent and reliable police data indicate a strong increase in the possession of illegal firearms, cases of human trafficking and terrorism-related charges. Recorded cases of illegally possessed firearms increased from 2.393 in 2008 to 4.575 in 2016, cases of human trafficking increased from 749 to 1086 (an increase of 45%) during the same time period, whilst terrorism related-charges slowly increased between 2008 and 2013 from 139 to 218 and accelerated strongly between 2014 and 2016 from 398 to 753.

The federal police attributes the rise in terrorism-related charges to the war in Syria and the related generally increased threat of terrorism in Western Europe according to police reports on the trends of police crime statistics. It additionally notes concern regarding the possible return of Belgian nationals who have left Belgium to fight in the Syrian war. These so-called ‘returning foreign fighters’ may have been traumatized, radicalized and/or trained during their period abroad, which could impose possible security risks upon return to their country of origin. Similarly, the police report emphasises that the increase in human trafficking is linked to the migration crisis and that the majority of interceptions occur on the French border as well as along the coast en route to the United Kingdom.

Belgium has witnessed a steady decline in crime rates for nearly a decade, yet more serious criminal activity has seen a strong increase in recent years. Whilst petty crime is declining, the combination of a big stockpile of illegal firearms, porous borders, and the ongoing Syrian civil war have led to a surge in more perilous criminal activity such as human trafficking, the possession and trade of illegal firearms, and terrorism-related incidents. With the public image of Belgium on the line in the wake of European terrorists attacks related to its capital of Brussels, it is no wonder that the city is still rife with sirens.

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More than two and a half years have passed since the launch of operation Vigilant Guardian, and yet there is no clear end in sight to the military presence in Belgium’s capital. The Belgian Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA) maintains its evaluation of the terror threat as ‘level 3’ or ‘serious’, indicating that the threat of an attack is both possible and probable, but not imminent. The threat level has not been reduced below level 3 for the entire country since the terror attacks in Paris of November 2015, whilst it was increased to level 4 for the region of Brussels in the aftermath of the Paris attacks and for the whole country during the Brussels attacks of March 22nd 2016.

The Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis’ threat levels 

• Level 1, or low: When the person, group or event, subject to the analysis is not threatened.
• Level 2 or moderate: When the threat to the person, group or event, subject to the analysis is unlikely.
• Level 3 or serious: When the threat to the person, group or event, subject to the analysis is possible and likely.
• Level 4 or very serious When the threat to the person, group or event, subject to the analysis is serious and imminent.

The Belgian military shares the assessment of the threat analysis, with defense planning expecting operation Vigilant Guardian to continue til at least the year 2020.

The tightened security has definitely made an impact on Brussels. Stabbing attacks in 2016 and 2017 did not culminate in civilian deaths, and soldiers were able to neutralize a threat involving explosives at the central train station in June this year without further casualties. Whilst the military deployment has been effective in the execution of its mandate to improve public security, concerns are raised both inside the army and the public.

Soldiers often spend three to four weeks on psychologically taxing patrolling duties, during which they miss scheduled training and other assignments. The operations under Vigilant Guardian have cost over a 100 million euros in the period of January 17th 2015 and April 18th 2017 at a time of cuts in the military budget that some perceive to restrict expenditure to either staff or equipment. The Belgian army aims to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of operation Vigilant Guardian by changing from static to mobile patrols and teaming up with police agents to enable searching capabilities. Mobile patrols, which are more in line with Belgian military practice, should allow soldiers to cover more ground with fewer soldiers, whilst police-military cooperation should complement each other’s mandates.

The terror attacks in Paris and Belgium have shaken up the city of Brussels. The city of plenty with its endless cultural events has witnessed a change in its image and mood. The soldiers in the streets are the physical embodiment of the duality of the issue at hand. Security should be omnipresent, yet through the continuation of a military presence in a civilian context, the boundaries are blurred between what is safe and what is not. The soldiers in the streets provide a necessary security, yet they form a daily reminder of the threat they protect us from.

With no definitive end in sight for the military presence in the streets of Brussels, one question remains on everyone’s mind: is this the new normal?

The post Soldiers in the streets: necessary security or a fearful reminder? appeared first on Brussels Express.