During their last years of office these deputies visited Crimea twice, in breach of French national and United Nations policy, and they made pro-Russian public relations statements to demonstrate their solidarity with Russia’s illegal occupation of Crimea, speaking out in favour of removing sanctions against Russia.

But elections are great levellers, and it is not surprising that French voters failed to be impressed by the fact that these politicians spent their time on foreign ventures rather than representing the local interests of their own constituents. So they rightly exercised their democratic privilege to vote them out of office.

But before the dust has settled from these political changes, Russia is already recruiting replacements to support their propaganda initiatives in France. The latest ciphers to join their ranks are local government politicians from Bouches-du-Rhône county in southern France, who travelled to Donetsk via Moscow and Rostov-on-Don last June at the invitation of Russia.

According to the regional newspaper “Le Provence” the politicians include Christian Borelli, a municipal councillor from Vitrolles; Christiane Pujol, a departmental councillor from Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur province; and Hubert Fayard, municipal councillor in Coudoux. Their mission has violated Ukraine’s legislation by virtue of the fact that they entered Donetsk oblast by road from Russia and not from Ukraine. Apparently the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs was not aware of their visit.

What is interesting about the trip is not the fact that the Kremlin has recruited fresh ciphers to peddle their propaganda line in France, but that the new recruits should be of little influence compared with their predecessors, and that their mission bears absolutely no relevance to their electoral mandate at home. The local government politicians do not have the same representative status as Thierry Mariani who was the co-chair of the NGO « French-Russian Dialogue Association, » an organisation committed to « strengthening strategic relations » between both countries.

Could this be a sign that it has become more difficult for Russia to recruit support for the Kremlin’s line in French political circles under the new government of President Macron?

Whatever the reason, the Bouche-du-Rhône councillors will find it difficult to explain to their local voters back home what could possibly have been the relevance of their jaunt to Moscow and Donetsk to their their regional responsibilities to manage the municipal administration of Provence.

Their predecessors, the national politicians Mariani, Bouchet, Dhuicq and others, committed similar errors of judgement, and their careers came to an abrupt end. The pointless expedition of the Provence councillors may similarly prove to be limiting for their own future careers. Within days of the local French politicians’ departure from Donetsk, renewed fierce hostilities across the line of conflict flared up with the deadly shelling of Ukrainian military positions and civilians by the Russian troops invading Ukraine. The timing of the councillors’ visit could hardly have been worse.

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Are you fed up with French politics? Even if you’re not French, you have probably heard about it for months and months now. The right-wing primaries indeed took place at the end of 2016, then the left-wing primaries, then the Presidential elections and finally the general elections. It is finally almost over.

But stay tuned until Sunday. Although there will probably be no big surprise, it is still a highly important election.

The French general elections have always been a big deal since the 5^th Republic was established, in 1958. Until 2002, the President used to dissolve the National Assembly (one of the two chambers of the French Parliament) when he took his office to get a strong majority for the next 5 years, which allowed him to govern and pass the bills he campaigned for. Since 2002, both the Presidential and General elections happened every 5 years, the general elections few weeks after the Presidential ones. The French citizens have always provided the President with a majority anyway, both before and after 2002. And there never was any surprise.

2017 elections were however different. If you have been interested in French politics over the last months, you might know there was a huge uncertainty with regard to the results. The polls indeed predicted Alain Juppé (right-wing party) to be elected, but he was defeated during the primaries. Nobody then knew about Hollande’s candidacy for another term, and he finally gave up.

And Emmanuel Macron, who was absolutely unknown a couple of years ago, launched his political movement last year and won the Presidential election without support from any traditional party. Although he got the highest position in France, only few polls predicted he would get a strong political majority, as he has no real political party and hose “new candidates” from the civil society, without political experience.

But politics is maybe taking a new path. The first round of the General elections which took place last week (two weeks ago for the French citizens who live abroad) clearly showed the French citizens were sceptical towards the traditional politicians. Many left-wing and right-wing leaders have been eliminated and the “new” candidates from “En Marche” clearly won in many constituencies. Although there is nothing absolutely certain, surveys predicted “En Marche” could get up to 75% or 80% of the seats.

And if you have a look at the primaries and the new political movements which have grown in France over the last years, it seems the citizens are looking for new representatives. But be careful with such an assessment. Even if you could think the electors trust new political leaders or candidates, do not forget that more than 50% of them did not go to the poll stations to vote last Sunday (less than 25% voted in Belgium!). It seems it is the same deal all over Europe and the World, while populism has been rising over the last couple of years. The main challenge is then about making the people more confident towards politics.

The post French Politics Taking a New Path? appeared first on Brussels Express.

Second in the polls with 20% is the alliance between the Republicans and the Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI). Trailing in 3rd place with 18% is Marine Le Pen’s Front National.

Immigration and security continue to be key electoral issues. This is potentially embarrassing for the Republicans which field several candidates, like Thierry Mariani, who stand accused of breaching international immigration laws by visiting the illegally occupied territory of Crimea in Ukraine. It is hard to understand how politicians can claim to be tough on migration, when they have a record of being illegal immigrants themselves.

But already the performance of Emmanuel Macron as President of France since his inauguration on the 14th of May is drawing praise. There can be no doubts that his leadership will help the electoral performance of his party and his allies this Sunday.

At the NATO summit in Brussels on the 25th of May, Macron will have attracted the attention of Guy Novès the coach of the French rugby team with his swerve to greet Angela Merkel before Donald Trump – a side-step that the great centre for “Les Bleus” Philippe Sella would have been proud of. With such insouciance, it is small wonder that Macron’s political heartland is the rugby loving South and West of France.

His elegant response to the USA’s withdrawal from the Paris accord last week also gave a signal that Macron has the courage and commitment to give global leadership, with his now famous slogan “Make our planet great again” – attracting more than 10 million views to the video of the TV broadcast on his Facebook Page.

Are we witnessing the beginning of a swing in favour of Liberal Democratic values across Europe? The Economist magazine last week endorsed the Liberal Democratic party in the UK to honour the long-held vision of the UK as an open, liberal country. Whilst it is still too early to forecast a Liberal Democrat revival in Europe, it looks probable that this political Group in the European Parliament will grow significantly stronger thanks to the performance of their member parties in France.

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It reminded me of an old email chain I received, which asked if you would hypothetically rather vote for an alcoholic (alleged) womanizer or a vegetarian that loves children. The following slide revealed the first was Winston Churchill and the second Adolph Hitler. Of course the fact that one was a democracy’s prime minister while the other was a psychopath with a “final solution” for an entire people was omitted. With all his accomplishments, Churchill was also a man of his colonial time and enforced with violence the will of the British crown. With perspective, we can start to assess the actions of men more than seven decades ago.

But in today’s hyper accelerated media cycle the cherry picking of information is widespread. Not quite fake news but stoking the fire, inspiring outrage, clickbaiting. It is after all how human beings function at their core: we are emotional creatures. What causes outrage will vary from country to country. Anglo-saxon countries tend to put a emphasis on a person’s private character to judge their public figure. Cheating on a spouse is very much frowned upon, whereas in France people hardly raised an eyebrow when the affair between Francois Hollande and Julie Gayet came to light.

In the kingdom of real time news politics has turned very messy. Perhaps more transparent, but also more short sighted than ever. For a taste of what a government led by the media cycle looks like, do check out the outstanding British comedy The Thick of It (think Yes Minister 30 years down the road). The ministers dance to the tune of the media, under the watch of the government’s spin master, unable to accomplish anything significant.

The Macron era seems to have kick-started a whole new spin culture in France. He ran his campaign on emotions (and was criticised for the lack of content), skillfully orchestrated the media in his favour and has been trying to redefine the relation of the government with the media. I am somewhat weary of this new direction that politics is taking. Now more than ever civil society and the media needs to hold political figures accountable for their actions rather than speculate on their characters.

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This debate is the last opportunity to convince those who have not decided whether they will vote or who they will vote for. Although most of the polls had predicted such a round, whatever the final result is, this election has already been very special.

First of all, the campaign has not been focusing so much on the programmes and the policies the candidates aimed to implement once elected. Both the right wing and the far-right wing candidates have been being in troubles due to political scandals. Most of the media have therefore mostly dealt with them and the issue of ethics has been at the top of the agenda. What is the first thing you think about when it comes to François Fillon? Probably not politics.

On the other hand, as we had mentioned few hours before the first round results, it seems this election has made the French bipartism over. Although there were some exceptions over the last decades (such as in 2002), both the Socialist and the Republican used to be qualified for the second round since the 5^th Republic entered into force, in 1958. They both have been eliminated this year, while Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have been qualified. Although the Front National has a long history, Emmanuel Macron was absolutely unknown a couple of years ago and he only set up his political movement (En Marche!) last year.

Last but not least, the far-right wing candidate could get a very high score. In 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen was qualified for the second round, huge protests took place in France and all the political leaders publicly supported Jacques Chirac to avoid Mr. Le Pen to be President.

In 2017, while populism has been raising across the World, there is no massive demonstration, some political leaders have made alliances with Marine Le Pen (Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) and other ones have not supported Emmanuel Macron (Jean-Luc Mélenchon). According to the last polls, Emmanuel Macron would win with about 60%. As the low turnout is a big issue this year, and it is not sure that the Mélenchon’s electors will vote, it is however quite uncertain.

Whatever the result is, both the campaign and the new political landscape will have significant consequences in France.

The post French Presidential election 2017: final battle appeared first on Brussels Express.

Macron’s strongest support came from the Western regions of France, and Le Pen’s from the Mediterranean coastal regions and the northern regions along France’s border with Belgium. Both candidates now go into a second round run-off election on Sunday 7th May, pitting the two political outsiders against one another – an independent pro-business liberal against an anti-immigration and anti-EU right wing candidate

This result marks the rejection of the France’s political ruling class from the traditional left and right, neither of which parties has qualified for the deciding vote.

The Centre-Right candidate Francois Fillon ran a flawed campaign that was damaged by allegations that he stole state funds to give his wife and children taxpayer funded “fake jobs” as parliamentary assistants.

The Socialist Benoît Hamon came in fourth place calling the destruction of the left by the far-right for the second time in 15 years a “moral defeat”. He has described Le Pen as an “enemy of the Republic” and his party is now a natural ally to participate in any future coalition with Macron’s new party “En Marche”.

Pollsters are forecasting that in the second round Macron is likely to win 61% of the votes, and Le Pen 39 %. If they are correct – and they have so far performed with commendable accuracy – then Emmanuel Macron will become France’s youngest President at the age of 39 years. He has never run for election before, and he is now one step away from the most senior elected role in the nation. Nevertheless polling errors in other countries facing key votes demands caution in assessing forecasts. The result is by no means a foregone conclusion and the “lady has yet to sing”; the remaining days of campaigning will contain unexpected twists and turns.

There have for example been credible reports of cyber attacks on the campaign offices of Emmanuel Macron. The attacks are alleged to carry digital “fingerprints” similar to the suspected Russian hacking of the Democratic National Committee and others in the 2016 US elections, according to an independent report by a security research group. More dirty tactics can be expected in the remaining days of the campaign.

But whoever now wins the Macron-Le Pen race, French politics is destined to change direction dramatically and forever. The presidential election will be followed in June by parliamentary elections for 577 seats in the National Assembly, which will determine how successfully the President will be able to govern. Although Le Pen is not favoured by the pollsters to win the presidency, her party currently only has 2 MPS in the Assembly and still hopes to increase that number.

If Macron is elected as predicted, then it is likely that he will need to form a coalition government between centre right and centre left which will be an altogether new political experience for France, and will test the ideology of some deputies.

A key policy issue that is still being fought in the election battlegrounds concerns immigration. This is where Le Pen and the centre right of Francois Fillon still share some common ground. Notably, both parties have spoken in favour of rapprochement with Russia, and have sent delegations to visit the illegally occupied territory of Crimea in breach of French national, EU and United Nations policy, thereby themselves committing international immigration offences.

These moral inconsistencies and other discrepancies in the declared positions of the established political parties in France will need to be flushed out in the weeks ahead, if the electorate is to be given a clear and unambiguous picture of the political ethics and policies that they can really expect from their deputies.

The post France prepares for economic reform appeared first on Brussels Express.

This outcome will give voters a feeling of déjà vu from the 2002 presidential election, when Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father and predecessor as leader of the National Front faced centre-right candidate Jacques Chirac in the second round. This time both the centre-right and centre-left establishment parties were wiped out while support soared throughout the campaign for Hollande’s former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron. The 39-year-old founded his own movement ‘En Marche’ and is on course to becoming the youngest ever and first outsider to be elected as President of the French Republic. This could complicate matters when it comes to the parliamentary elections, held shortly after, as Macron is unlikely to win a majority in the National Assembly.

His supporters would be wise however not to underestimate Marine Le Pen in the run-up to the second round. Her party’s popularity is at a historical high and scores particularly well with young people aged 18 to 24, in contrast to other populist parties across Europe which tend to reflect the views of older demographics. The ‘anyone but Le Pen’ message will also be less effective this time around due to the breakdown of the remaining 55% of votes.

Despite François Fillon’s call to vote for Emmanuel Macron, his electorate could very well split three ways between those who will follow his instructions, those on the right who sympathise with the National Front and those who will plainly abstain. It will be interesting to see which way Mr Mélenchon’s voters go, who refrained from backing either of the finalists. The Eurosceptic far-left candidate knows very well that although his supporters despise the far-right, Marine Le Pen is their only option for a referendum on the Euro. To them, Macron represents the continuity of the establishment order and his enthusiasm for the European Union is enough to put them off.

Far from his 19% but still potentially significant is France Arise candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, with just under 5%, who also refused to publicly declare his support for either Macron or Le Pen. As a Eurosceptic, his share of voters will likely favour the National Front, as will that of François Asselineau from the sovereigntist Popular Republican Union (UPR). The various workers’ parties are just as unlikely to support Macron.

All polls so far indicate that the centrist form ‘En Marche’ will win come May 7 but the National Front has reason enough to hope for a dramatic turn around, should eurosceptics rally behind Le Pen. Her stance on national identity and immigration furthermore appeals to a chunk of the centre-right, who will be inclined to reject what they see as another five years of socialist government.

In a bid to rise above partisan politics and unite the nation behind her, Marine Le Pen announced last night that she was stepping down as president of the National Front. The debate between the two frontrunners is scheduled to take place on May 3.

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Hundreds and hundreds of French citizens invaded Brussels Expo this morning to vote. More than 35 polling stations were open to allow all the French expats to tell which candidate they would like to replace François Hollande over the upcoming  5 years. At 11.00 am, most of the voters had to queue more than 30 minutes before entering the pooling booth, while some of them did not know yet who they would vote for and only decided at the very last second.

The 2017 Presidential election has been being really special so far. It is indeed probably the most mysterious election since the 5^th Republic entered into force, in 1958. According to many surveys which were published few days ago, 4 candidates (Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon) could be qualified to the second round, as they potentially could get about 20% of the votes. And for the first time in the history of the 5^th Republic, both the left-wing and the right-wing candidates could be eliminated after the first round. The Presidential elections could therefore make the traditional bipartism over.

As the election is very uncertain, the main candidates have then led a very intense campaign since the beginning of the year. Three big debates have been held over the last two months, and they all held political meetings almost every day. As every French today, The Brusselian French expats were involved in this campaign. About 50,000 French citizens currently live in the Belgian capital, and more than 100,000 in whole Belgium.

This is why some candidates popped down in Brussels to try to convince the French expats. When he was not candidate yet, Emmanuel Macron came to a Politico event on 18 April 2016 and he presented the political movement he had just set up few days before, En marche, as well as he shared his views on economy and society. More recently, Benoît Hamon, the socialist candidate, also came to Brussels last 21 March and hosted a proper political meeting with European socialist leaders.

A recent survey showed that Emmanuel Macron could receive the greatest number of votes in BeNeLux. We however have seen last year the political polls are not always trustful, as well as the expats do not provide an overall picture of France…. So be patient, we should know more about the results in two hours.

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The first round of the French presidential election will take place in one month time, on April 23. Following last week’s Dutch elections, the French election will be key on the future of the European Union. As more than 1.7 million of French citizens are registered abroad (more than 150,000 only in Belgium), the candidates pay attention to campaign out of the hexagone.

Benoît Hamon, the socialist candidate, has then decided to meet with the French electors who live in Belgium today at 14, rue Dusquenoy at 6.00 pm (close to the Gare centrale). Several hundreds of attendees (French or not) are expected to be there. Mr. Hamon will hold this political meeting together with Thomas Piketty, a French economist, and Yannick Jadot, a French green politician. Elio di Rupo, former Belgian Prime-Minister and head of the Belgian socialist party will also participate in this event.

Campaigning in Brussels makes sense and Benoît Hamon is not the first candidate to come to the Belgian capital to introduce his political project. Although Emmanuel Macron was not candidate yet, Politico organised a public event on 18 April 2016, and the former minister of economy presented the political movement he had just set up few days before, En marche.

The french presidential election results are unpredictable. The traditional bipartism seems to be over today, as five candidates could get more than 10% of the votes. Both the far right-wing candidate, Marine Le Pen, and the right wing candidate, François Fillon, have been suspected to be involved in political scandals over the last few months. They are however still running for the presidency, and Marine Le Pen could receive the greatest number of votes in the first round, according to some polls. On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron was still totally unknown few years ago and it seems he might win the election. Benoît Hamon, as well as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the two main left-wing candidates, were not able to agree on a common candidature and different opinion polls predict they will not be in the second round.

The political polls have not been very accurate last year, as both Brexit and the Trump’s election were not predicted to happen. One month. Be patient!

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