His election winning strategy was built on opposition to the oligarchs and criticising Ukraine’s dependence on the West. Zelenskiy began his presidency by dissolving the Parliament and calling for snap elections. If these turn out in his favour, newly elected MPs would form a pro-presidential majority and fully cement his political dominance.

Although Zelenskiy’s successful election as President seems to have come out of nowhere, his main backer is well established. A major oligarch and billionaire, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, supported Zelenskiy’s campaign by providing both funds and ideas.

For Ukraine’s western backers and financial donors, and in particular for the people of Ukraine, there are already a number of clear signs that the relationship between Kolomoyskyi and Zelenskiy is not as benign as has been suggested. On the contrary, a number of recent decisions clearly demonstrate that Kolomoyskyi is, in an unsubtle way, already consolidating his control over the new President and pushing his agenda.

On day two of his Presidency, Zelenskiy appointed Kolomoyskyi’s private lawyer, Andriy Bohdan, as his Chief of Staff, a vital position for the successful coordination of his political agenda.

Kolomoyskyi is also openly challenging the nationalisation of Privatbank, which he used to own and is today the largest bank in the country. The bank was nationalised in 2016 after it nearly went bankrupt. Considered ‘too big to fail’ the government and the National Bank of Ukraine poured 155 billion UAH (approximately 5 billion euros) of taxpayer money into the bank to prevent its collapse. A Ukrainian court surprisingly ruled in April that the nationalisation was illegal, boosting the chances that Kolomoyskyi could once again win back control of it. The IMF has already warned that reversing the nationalisation of Privatbank would jeopardize Ukraine’s financial aid programme, specifically the 3.9-billion-dollar loan that is expected to be finalised this year.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Kolomoyskyi also advised President Zelenskiy not to cooperate with the IMF and to let Ukraine default on its external debt. Such a scenario would have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine’s slowly recovering economy but could be very beneficial for Kolomoyskyi’s bottom line. This from a man whose business mantra is that “only fools pay invoices and taxes.”

The benefit for Kolomoyskyi for Ukraine defaulting on its IMF obligations is that his mining, metal, and ferrous alloys companies are export driven and receive payments in euros, dollars or pounds. If Ukraine were ever to default on its debt, its currency would plummet and wages, taxes and electricity bills would then be paid for in a devalued national currency while Kolomoyskyi’s profits would be kept in foreign currencies. This would give him a massive domestic advantage as it would allow him to buy cheap Ukrainian assets and drive out competitors from the market, eventually monopolising entire sectors of the economy.

Under Poroshenko, Ukraine started to position itself as an attractive destination for international investors. Any backpedaling on cooperation with the IMF and any halting or delay in the ongoing economic and institutional reform process would have terrible consequences for the country’s investment landscape. An eventual default would lead to inflation, loss of jobs, and the mass emigration of Ukraine’s most skilled workers.

Being an owner of the biggest ferrous alloys plant in Europe, Kolomoyskyi is also interested in controlling the country’s electricity power market. Since his plants consume huge amounts of electricity, he would obviously benefit from keeping electricity prices as low as possible. This directly contradicts Ukraine’s commitment to the EU and international financial institutions to liberalise its energy sector and launch a fully competitive electricity market by 1st July 2019.

The implementation of a competitive energy market is of critical importance for Ukraine’s international obligations and is vital to integrate its energy grid with the rest of the EU and increase cross-border electricity trade. In addition, it would create the conditions for the sector to attract sufficient investment to upgrade the country’s soviet-era energy grid – which has a remaining operating life of about 10 years. It would also improve energy efficiency and move towards a more sustainable energy system that reflects Ukraine’s climate change commitments.

While any postponement of this reform may come under the pretext of the need for ‘minor technical corrections’, there is a strong suspicion that Kolomoyskyi’s intention is to push reform back as far as possible, or ensure it never happens. Not only would this damage Ukraine’s ties with the EU, but it would also send a signal to financial and political partners that the current administration cannot be trusted. In the long run, it may even lead Ukraine to turn its back on the West and rely once again on Russia for its energy needs.

Such an open and public intervention of a private citizen into the political and economic life of a country has not been seen since Boris Berezovsky’s intervention in Russia in the early years of Vladimir Putin. While it remains to be seen how much influence Kolomoyskyi will truly have on Zelenskiy’s political agenda, these early warning signs are not encouraging, to say the least, and should raise very serious concerns both with the international community and domestically in Ukraine.

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The final result of the election will only be known by 10th April when all of the overseas votes have been counted, but at this stage it is clear from the early vote count that there will be a run-off election on 21st April between the two leading candidates, Volodymyr Zelensky who has more than 30% of the votes and Petro Poroshenko with just half of that number at around 16%.

“This is a good result for Ukraine’s future relations with the EU. It is particularly welcome that the elections were broadly free, fair and democratic,” said Andriy Domanskyy a senior Ukrainian lawyer speaking at the conference.

“Whoever wins the run-off vote to become President later this month, there remain three very important priorities to help Ukraine on its chosen pro-European path,” he went on to say.

“Firstly, freedom of speech and the protection of journalists. According to Amnesty International: “2018 was marked by a sharp surge of violent attacks against a range of individuals and groups, often in the name of patriotism and ‘traditional values’”. Many of these cases involve investigative journalists who reveal corruption scandals. The next government of Ukraine should take serious steps to improve the situation. By this I mean to put a stop to harassment, to protect threatened journalists and to release those who who have been unjustly imprisoned, such as Kirill Vishinsky the editor of Ria Novosti in Ukraine.”

“The second area that the new government should pay attention to is the protection of the human rights of practising lawyers and human rights activists defending these individuals, so that they can go about their professional duties free of harassment.”

“The third priority for the new government is anti-corruption. We see from the current Presidential race that Ukraine is undoubtedly making progress in developing democracy. In neighbouring Slovakia the electorate chose last weekend a new President who campaigned on an anti-corruption ticket, fighting for justice and truth. There are some lessons here for Ukraine, that we can learn from our neighbour. People are tired of the old political establishment that is maintained by privilege and favour. They want to make a break with the past, to put an end to corruption and to have a fair, decent and principled government that does not tolerate fraud and deceit.”

The post Ukraine’s Democratic Progress appeared first on Brussels Express.

Is there anyone among the cast of competing candidates that could challenge Tymoshenko or Poroshenko?  As has become tradition in Ukraine, the candidate list is colourful. Sadly for Star Wars fans there is no Darth Vader Party running this time, but the list, which includes comedians and a pop star, does not disappoint those looking for entertainment.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a well-known actor who stars in a popular TV show in which he plays a school teacher who goes on to become President, showed a certain audacity in announcing his candidacy on New Year’s Eve, bumping President Poroshenko’s traditional New Year address off the airwaves. The third season of his TV show is strategically timed to air in March, the month of the election. Of course, the inevitable questions are being asked about why he is running and who is really behind him?  The owner of his television channel 1+1, Ihor Kolomoisky, is being named as his likely backer. ‘Team Ze’, as his supporters are known, is growing and seems to comprise those who are simply ready for a change, something fresh, the ‘anyone but Poroshenko’ camp.

Another screen star running is Yulia Lytvynenko, a television host who shares not only Tymoshenko’s first name but also looks strikingly like her, causing people to do a double take when driving past billboards to work out which Yulia they are looking at. The fact that she worked for Pryamiy TV which was owned by a Poroshenko loyalist causes speculation that she is running only to take votes away from Tymoshenko.

If we dismiss the clowns and the stalking horses, then for those looking for a more cerebral choice, then there is at least one serious thinking person’s candidate who does not fit the Ukrainian mould of personality cult politics. His name is Vitaliy Skotsyk. He is not from the prevailing power structure, there is no oligarch bankrolling him and he is an independent thinker. Vitaliy Skotsyk is an economist and a successful businessman. He is new to the world of politics but over the last 4 years he has renewed the country’s Agrarian party to build up his political support foundation with a true Western style democratic political party which has adopted a manifesto that is long on fresh policy ideas and short on ego trips.

The energy with which he has motored a new party onto the scene is reminiscent of France’s Emmanuel Macron, but he is different from the French President in that he actually talks to and listens to his voters. His passion for town hall meetings and his method of bringing people into politics for the first time is closer to Barack Obama, if one can conjure up such an image in white rural Ukraine. Skotsyk belongs to the conservative centre right and must be the only presidential candidate in Ukraine who actually wants to limit presidential power, with his plans for a senate, a lower chamber and a German style role for the country’s Presidency.

Another serious professional in the running is Oleksandr Vilkul the leader of the Opposition Block. Experienced, and a polished, energetic orator, he has the strongest following from the party’s heartlands in Southern and Eastern Ukraine. But his association with the government of disgraced former President Yanukovych as former Vice Prime Minister in the last government will make him unpopular with voters in Western Ukraine.

Anatoly Grytsenko, the head of the Civil Position party is a former defence minister who is doing well in the polls since announcing his candidacy. Roman Nasirov, who has been a suspect in a corruption case since March 2018 will also run.  Independent lawmaker Vitaliy Kupriy, former journalist Dmytro Gnap, pop singer Syatoslav Vakarchuk, Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovviy from the Samopomich (Self-Help) party, maverick populist Oleh Lyashko Leader of the Radical Party and former diplomat Valentyn Nalyvaichenko all swell the ranks of candidates lining up to run.

The main pro-Russia candidate is Yuriy Boyko of the Za Zhytta party. President Poroshenko has already accused Russia of meddling in this upcoming electing by means of social media, cyber and television interference.

Not to be left out, the intelligence services have their candidate too. Igor Smeshko, who led the Ukrainian security service during President Kuchma’s second term just declaring his candidacy. Mr Smeshko dined with Viktor Yushchenko the night of his infamous poisoning. Mr Smeshko told Ukrainian TV that if he had really wanted to kill Mr Yushchenko with poison, Mr Yushchenko would now be dead, which is an original if macabre way to reassure voters about the sincerity of his platform.

If we accept the likelihood of a second-round presidential election battle between Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, each of these candidates have their challenges to overcome. Poroshenko has been accused of being reluctant to truly tackle corruption; Ukraine is currently ranked number 130 in Transparency International’s latest world corruption perception report published last week – not a great endorsement. Polls about Tymoshenko show that a large section of the electorate does not trust her, and she has the largest negative ranking of any of the candidates.

At a time when a five year war with Russia and choices about the European Union and NATO loom large for Ukraine, the electorate’s decision on 31st March will be important. It remains to be seen whether this year’s voters are ready for the challenge of breaking away from the old personality style politics and the voices of experienced candidates they know from past performance, or choosing a fresh candidate looking to deliver on new promises for Ukraine’s future generations. It promises to be a fascinating contest.

The post The crowded and colourful playing field of Ukraine’s presidential election appeared first on Brussels Express.

The conflict is not front of mind in European foreign policy. But the fate of the residents of Donbass should never be forgotten; they still need humanitarian assistance, particularly at this difficult time of year in the depths of winter. 6.5 million people, have had their peaceful lives disrupted by the war; their way of life shattered, families torn apart, homes destroyed, friends and relatives killed and injured.

The main goal of the photographic exhibition in Strasbourg is to draw the attention of Europe’s Parliamentarians to the tragedy of Donbass, and the outstanding humanitarian work of the Rinat Akhmetov Foundation. Coming from Donbass himself, the leading Ukrainian businessman Rinat Akhmetov understands and empathises with the hardships faced by the region’s residents who have been caught up in the crossfire of the conflict.

The Rinat Akhmetov Foundation began delivering aid 5 years ago and continues to do so today. More than a million people have been saved from the beginning of the conflict in 2014. Over 12 million food packages have been delivered to more than 750 cities and villages in the East of Ukraine, and thanks to these packages people who live along the contact line survive.

The Exhibition in the Parliament is being hosted by Charles Tannock MEP and presents black-and-white collages from the photo album « Donbass and Civilians », colour photographs of the destroyed houses and their inhabitants, and video films of children who have seen the effects of the war with their own eyes. The exhibition runs throughout this plenary week in the Winston Churchill Building of the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

Also present in the Parliament in Strasbourg to give a first hand account of the work of the Foundation are Roman Rubchenko the Chief Executive Officer, Yuliia Malich the Foundation’s Manager of External Relations, and Nataliya Yemchenko, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Rinat Akhmetov Foundation.

“The stories of the victims of the conflict in the Donbass should be spoken out loud, heard, preserved, understood, and told,” said Nataliya Yemchenko. “Even better they should be shown.”

“Today, only a few people know how these people actually live. Troubles do not become less, but there is a terrible habit. Those who live in a conflict zone get used to the fact that someone is shooting. Those who live far away grow accustomed to the fact that something constantly happens in the Donbass, but life goes on. It is very scary when people become inured to a state of war. Rinat Akhmetov helps civilians with food and medical care. And he is waging a daily struggle against the indifference of Ukrainians and Europe to the problems facing the civilian community of Donbass,” she went on to say.

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Whilst the Hungarian government formally denies having anything to do with Gruevski leaving Macedonia to escape serving a jail term, there are reports that he entered the country in a Hungarian diplomatic vehicle, and is now accommodated as a VIP in Orbán’s private villa. Orbán and Gruevski are longstanding political allies, and Orbán’s ruling Hungarian Fidesz party, which is affiliated to the European Parliament’s EPP Group, has said that Gruevski was “persecuted and threatened by a left-wing government”.

In the European Parliament there have been calls for Gruevski to return to Macedonia to face justice, and questions have been asked about how Hungary can square the harbouring of a convicted criminal with its own national immigration and asylum policy.

Viktor Orbán now faces a choice; if he sends Gruevski back to Skopje, as the Macedonian government demands, then he can claim the high moral ground to be a supporter of the western world and a defender of democracy. If he decides either to grant Gruevski asylum, or to transfer him to Moscow, then he will be giving the clearest of signals that he is committed to the Kremlin and openly supports the Russian President’s strategic objectives in the region.

Based on his recent track record, the latter would appear to be the most likely scenario. Together with Italian and Czech populists Viktor Orbán has been campaigning to lift sanctions imposed against Russia for military aggression in Ukraine.

Russia is actively waging a disinformation campaign in Hungary to ideologically mould members of extremist organisations in the country to believe that the Russian annexation of Crimea sets a precedent for Hungary to regain its territories, primarily Zakarpattia in Ukraine. Russian policy in the region aims to question the existing state borders and to spark territorial conflict with a view to creating instability. Actions are being undertaken to promote Hungarian separatist movements in the neighbouring countries of Ukraine and Romania. Much of the funding for such activities comes from oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin such as Konstantin Malofeev, who has business interests in Hungary.

An important element of Russia’s Hungary strategy is to locate in Hungary the EU centre of the pro-Kremlin right-wing “International Movement”.  For example, events organised by the Hungarian right-wing attract participation from pro-Russian extremists from Great Britain (in particular, Jim Dowson of the Knights Templar International (KTI) and Nick Griffin of the National Front). Confirming the trend, the « Wolf » International Centre for Combat and Special Training held exercises for local activists of paramilitary organisations near Budapest in August. The head of the Wolf Centre is a Russian national Denis Ryauzov, who previously served in Russian special operations and is on a US Treasury sanctions list.

The Hungarian leadership which once so actively fought against the Soviet past, now advocates modern Russia’s policies against the West. But Orbán is not just working to weaken unity in the EU, he is actively trying to reunite Budapest with territories that formerly belonged to Hungary such as Zakarpattia in Ukraine, where 150 000 ethnic Hungarians make up just under 10% of the region’s population.

The current dispute between Budapest and Kyiv over the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia began in 2017, starting at first from a disagreement on legislation on languages and education, but then spiralling into Hungarian opposition to Ukraine’s meetings with NATO and the issue of threats to block Ukraine’s European integration process under their Association Agreement with the EU. Hungary has also provoked Ukrainian irritation by issuing passports to Ukrainian nationals from the Hungarian minority living in Ukraine, where dual citizenship is not allowed.

This is all part of a broader strategic plan to threaten the stability of Europe’s Eastern flank, in Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and the Balkans. Moscow’s main goal is to create new regions of conflict along the EU’s borders, and to split EU unity on the policy of maintaining sanctions against Russia. An absolutely key strategic target for Russian sponsored actions in the EU is Hungary, so Orbán’s next move on the Gruevski case will be instructive.

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Although the Holodomor tragedy happened more than 85 years ago, today we see unfolding before our eyes yet another man made famine in the Middle East. The Saudi Arabia-led war in Yemen against Iran-linked Houthi rebel forces has pushed 14 million people to the brink of starvation. The Saudi military campaign has killed more than 10,000 people in this desperately poor country since 2015, and over the last 3 and a half years there has been the most terrible humanitarian catastrophe inflicted on Yemen by the war. The United Nations has now warned that half of the population of Yemen need aid to survive if they are not to suffer imminent starvation.

It is within mankind’s ability to stop this needless slaughter of innocent lives.  If the airstrikes against populated areas in Yemen were to cease, and all of the parties to the conflict were to move swiftly toward a cease-fire, this would then allow essential medical and food aid to be delivered to the civilian population which is being starved by the embargo on shipping and trade caused by the war.

 

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International experts and Western partners have long argued in favour of liberalising Ukraine’s energy market and deregulation of gas and coal prices. In 2016 a market pricing method for coal was introduced in accordance with Article 269 of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. The coal pricing formula is known as Rotterdam Plus, and this formula is used to set a wholesale market price, which is then used to calculate an estimated wholesale market price for electricity tariffs.

The Rotterdam Plus formula was originally introduced as a solution to the problems caused by the blockade of coal deliveries from Donbass as a result of disruption to supply caused by the ongoing war and the loss of control over mines located in the occupied territories. But opponents argue that the market situation has now changed and that the formula has outlived the usefulness of its original purpose.

The formula has continued to prove controversial, with allegations from its critics that DTEK the largest coal and mining company in Ukraine, is the formula’s main beneficiary. These complaints led to the opening of an investigation last year by Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Agency (NABU) into alleged collusion between DTEK and the Regulator.

The issue is again drawing media interest in the run-up to next year’s Presidential elections in Ukraine. In The Energy Committee of the Verkhovna Rada last month, hearings were held to review the work of the first 100 days of work of a newly constituted team in the Regulator’s Office (NKREKU), with a view to determining whether the Regulator had become “more professional and independent”.

The hearings caused huge interest among all energy market participants, with participation by Yuri Nedashkovsky, President of Energoatom, Andrei Kobolev, CEO of Naftogaz, Yuri Gnatyuk, Chairman of Energorynok, Maksim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, and others. The event was chaired by Alexander Dombrovsky the Head of the Committee on Fuel and Energy, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety:

Opening the hearing Alexander Dombrovsky, Chairman of the Committee, emphasised that Ukraine is trying hard to reform and transform. “I am very pleased that Ukraine finally has the Law on the Independent Regulator, and today its new representatives can report on the first 100 days of their work,” he said.

Taking the floor, Olga Belkova (a Member of the Verkhovna Rada) reminded members of the Regulaor’s office about their professional duty and personal responsibility when making strategic decisions for the country. She said: “With regard to the formula « Rotterdam Plus”, the regulator must explain what is happening – it is your professional duty. The issue of the tariff for Energoatom NAEC remains unresolved. This issue has already moved from the economic to the political plane, and its lack of regulation will have serious consequences for the country.”

Commenting on this, the president of Energoatom, Yuriy Nedashkovsky, emphasised that the entire energy community of Ukraine, had looked forward to the appointment of a new Commission, but had unfortunately been disappointed by a lack of results “Unfortunately, after a hundred days it can be stated that the changes have dried up on this. The same stamps, and the rhetoric itself, the same corrupt « Rotterdam Plus ». The tariff paid to Energoatom under this formula for the electricity that we generate continues to be the lowest in the world. Why?”

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During the discussion, serious concerns were raised about the growing phenomenon of the creation and subsequent use of fake news by Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) in the pursuit of their clients’ agendas.

One of the case studies given was that of the highly controversial so-called ‘human rights’  NGO, the Brussels based Open Dialogue Foundation (ODF), originally founded in Warsaw in 2009, by Ivan Szerstiuk, who is now reportedly currently serving a sentence for ordering a murder in Ukraine. There are strong and long-standing rumours circulating in the EU institutions, and amongst the Brussels press corps, that ODF was founded at the behest of Kazakh fugitive Oligarch Mukhtar Ablyazov, who has been described in the British press as “the world’s richest fraudster”, and who has multiple convictions and outstanding arrest warrants, including one for suspicion of involvement in murder, in his name. There are proven connections between Ablyazov and senior figures within ODF.

The ODF recently attracted media attention across Europe when the foundation’s current president, Lyudmyla Kozlovska, a Ukrainian citizen who has enjoyed residency rights in Poland for 10 years on the basis of her marriage to a Polish citizen, Bartosz Kramek, who is also head of the ODF management board.

However, for whatever reason she herself has not been granted Polish citizenship. In August of this year she was turned back at Brussels airport arriving on a flight from Kyiv, on the grounds that she had been banned from entering the Schengen zone by the Polish government as she was allegedly a threat to the national security of Poland.

The ODF has been linked to allegedly seditious activities including a call to bring down the Polish government by Kramek.

A recent (April 2018) report by the Independent investigation body on the allegations of corruption within the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), presented strong evidence of manipulation, and indeed bribery, of parliamentarians by lobbyists and NGOs. An investigation by a Brussels-based journalist revealed that in 2016 ODF lobbied PACE on behalf of Vyacheslav Platon Kobalyev, a Moldovan citizen and reputedly one of the country’s richest men. He is currently serving an 18 year prison sentence having being found guilty of fraud and money laundering. A declaration by PACE (No. 617 | 11 October 2016) calling for Kobalyev’s release from jail describes him as having been subjected to “political persecution”.

In the name of “human rights”, ODF represents a number of extremely wealthy fugitives, mostly wanted for money laundering in their respective countries, presenting them all as persecuted “political oppositionists”.

This was indeed the defence that Kozlovska presented when turned back by the authorities at Zaventem airport in August after being told at border control ‘Poland is looking for you on a high alert. There is a ban to enter the Schengen countries.’  She has been reported as saying ‘I told the police officer that I recognise the case as one of political prosecution of my husband and Polish authorities want to punish him’.

There is no evidence that her husband has been arrested himself. Despite his allegedly seditious comments, it would therefore appear that it is her, not him, that the Polish authorities are most concerned about. It has been noted that whilst she herself is somewhat reticent when it comes to answering questions on the subject, although presenting herself as ‘pro-Ukrainian’ she also possesses a Russian passport, allegedly granted to her following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.

Following the OSCE conference, delegates unanimously signed a Written Declaration stating that, “foundations such as the Open Dialogue use the money of their sponsors and distort real information about the human rights situation and try to propagandise (their) biased point of view in countries with a developing civil society. In this regard, constructive cooperation between government and the non-governmental sector can be threatened.”

Delegates also called on the OSCE leadership to “pay attention to the activities of the Open Dialogue Foundation, which has an ambiguous reputation in the countries of the European Union.”

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This is the 5th year that the YES meeting has been held in Kyiv, after the annexation and military occupation of Crimea by Russia perforce caused a change of location from the original and historically symbolic venue of the Lividia Palace in Yalta. But the institution remains true to its original objectives, and it is still the key event that provides an annual review and authoritative analysis of the future of relations between Ukraine and the EU.

With the onset of autumn, we are also approaching the 5th winter of war that Ukraine has faced in its Eastern provinces with armed military intervention from Russian army regular forces, and the circumstances of this conflict will inevitably play a strong backdrop to next year’s Presidential election campaign.

Ukrainian voters are likely to support a candidate who can show to them that they will be the best choice for the country’s future integration ambitions with Europe. The present incumbent Petro Poroshenko was handed something of a PR success last Friday (14 September) when the European Commission signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ukraine for Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) of up to €1 billion in the form of medium and long term loans.

With this assistance, the EU indicates that it is happy with the direction that reforms are taking in Ukraine, and that it will continue to support economic stabilisation in the country, including through structural and governance reforms.

In signing the MOU with Ukraine, Valdis Dombrovskis, the Commission Vice-President said: « Europe strongly supports Ukraine on its path of economic recovery and reform. The new programme of EU macro-financial assistance will help Ukraine reduce its economic vulnerabilities and enhance stability. At the same time, by implementing important reforms, especially in the area of the fight against corruption, Ukraine needs to deliver on the expectations of its citizens.” Future payment of disbursements under the programme will also be dependent on continuing to fulfil political conditions, which require Ukraine to respect European values and principles, including a multi-party parliamentary system, the rule of law and respect for human rights.

Paradoxically, Ukraine’s immediate neighbour, Hungary, was censured in last week’s plenary by the European Parliament for illiberal behaviour and failure to respect European values. So 15 years on from the start of the YES strategy, Ukraine finds itself moving on a more pro-European path even than some of the EU member states on its Western border.

Whatever his detractors may say, Petro Poroshenko has been at the helm of his country for a historic period which has seen the emergence of strong and sustainable civil society organisations. Whether or not this development can actually be directly attributed to his policies, nevertheless the growing maturity of democratic responsibility and the espousal of European values has happened under Poroshenko’s watch. He should take credit for this, and it will undoubtedly lead to a more robust society capable of dealing with the changes that lie ahead for Ukraine.

It is still too early to pay too much attention to recent opinion polls predictions about the outcome of next year’s Presidential elections. What is certain is that the contest will be closely fought, and most probably it will go to a second round run-off election after the first poll. Also, with the growing sophistication and intelligence of Ukrainian civil society, it is going to take more than signature postures promoting a personal brand to swing votes. People will want to see a break from the old style of politics, and to place their trust in the candidate who can convince them of their genuine commitment to real change.

I anticipate a fascinating year of politics in Ukraine, as young intellectuals seek a shift change in the landscape of their government establishment, and strive to create better democratic representation that is true to the European core ideals that they aspire to. This will be no small achievement, given the neighbours Ukraine has to deal withe to their immediate East and West, but I still believe that Ukraine is a great country, and that its people will rise to the challenge.

The post Great Country, Shame About the Neighbours – Yalta European Strategy Meeting appeared first on Brussels Express.

« The number of issues that concern us, from Ukraine to Syria, the many issues of cooperation, including economic cooperation, is so great that it is justified to be in permanent dialogue, » she said, before adding that « no particular result » was to be expected from Saturday’s meeting.

Germany and France are the sponsors of the peace process in Ukraine, which today seems to be stalled. Russia is accused by Kiev and Westerners of militarily supporting the separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russia denies such claim.

Merkel and Putin are scheduled to meet at around 6 pm on Saturday in Meseberg Castle, a German government residence 70 km north of Berlin.

Berlin is also playing a minor role in the coalition against the ISIS group in Syria but has close ties with actors in the region, such as Turkey or the Kurds of Iraq. It also hosts hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees.

On Friday, Merkel discussed a possible summit on Syria in Turkey with Putin, along with French and Turkish Presidents Emmanuel Macron and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. « It must be well prepared, which is why there is no fixed date, » she said.

The Chancellor spoke by telephone with Macron on Friday, the two leaders reaffirming the need to support « an inclusive political process » in Syria to achieve « lasting peace in the region ».

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