Tic-tac for Catalonia

Tomorrow’s election in Catalonia are crucial for both Spain and the European Union. Will the Catalan pro-independence movement take back the power in Catalonia? Will 5 million catalans punish Puigdemont and express a strong support to the Spanish government?

One think seems to be clear: the pro-independence movements have expressed a strong message of unity in the past weeks. As an exemple, over 45 000 protesters gathered in Brussels to show support for deposed Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, and to urge the EU to support their drive for independence from Spain.

Can Puigdemont really win tomorrow’s election?

According to the last survey, conducted by Metroscopia, the pro-independence parties will obtain 43,8% of the votes (Puigdemont’s party would rank third). The parties supporting the unity of Spain –  PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos – reach 44,9% all together.

Source: Metrocospia, El PaisMetrocospia explains that “more citizens vote, more unlikely is the victory of the pro-independence parties”.

Whatever the result will be, Spain, the EU and N-VA will draw some conclusions. If the pro-independence coalition wins, both the EU and Spain will look for a compromise allowing more competences for Catalonia. Otherwise, it will be hard to call for democracy and to respect the rule of law. But if the pro-unity parties wins, it will surely be a significant failure, for both Carles Puigdemont and N-VA. The former President of the Generalitat will probably have no option than heading back to Spain and face the judges. The pro-Flanders party will lose a strong ally and a golden hope to obtain more autonomy in the upcoming years.